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Vietnam's soaring US trade surplus stokes new fears of Trump tariffs
Vietnam is vulnerable to becoming the new Trump administration's next target for tariffs as data shows its trade surplus with the US ballooning. US trade data released on Thursday showed the country's deficit with Vietnam reached $102 billion in the first ten months of this year, nearly a 20% increase over the same period in 2023. "Vietnam is an ideal candidate for early action because it cannot easily retaliate," Head of Trade Policy Deborah Elms said.
Europe in the line of fire as Trump threatens trade war with China
Things could become tense between Brussels and Washington, as the fear that a flood of Chinese exports would be pushed to Europe by an insurmountable US tariff wall grows. "The Trump administration, like the Biden administration, will expect the EU to respond to China’s export driven economic policies in a similar way as the United States,” said Senior Research Fellow Keith Rockwell. But the US and the EU have been there before — and there are big transatlantic differences on the best approach to take.
China’s foreign investment is falling. Will a second Trump presidency deal a heavier blow?
China's inbound FDI faces a challenging outlook as Trump's return to the White House clouds Beijing’s ongoing efforts to retain and attract overseas businesses. Foreign companies contributed over half of China’s export value between 1996 and 2010, according to Senior Research Fellow Stewart Paterson. China runs the risk of being increasingly divorced from growth in foreign supply chains if the downward FDI trend continued, Paterson wrote.
Breaking down the world’s tariffs against China’s tech industry
The EU and the US have long been the most vocal critics of China's economic policies. In recent years, non-Western economies have joined the ranks of countries imposing tariffs affecting on China’s tech industry. “The US kicked this ball off, got the ball rolling, but they’re not alone in viewing China’s trade practices as unfair” and using tariffs to protect and “incentivize” alternative suppliers, Senior Research Fellow Stewart Paterson told Rest of World.
Promise and peril for Southeast Asia in Trump’s tariff talk
Trump has repeatedly railed against the trade surpluses many countries besides China have built up with the US and suggested bringing them down with higher tariffs on their goods as well, or with other trade restrictions. This could prove problematic for many countries in Asia, and Vietnam especially, says Head of Trade Policy Deborah Elms. Vietnam's trade surplus with the US has soared well past $100 billion since 2019.
Trump’s tariff threat sets stage for bitter global trade war
As officials in Canada, China, and Mexico scrambled to respond to Trump's tariff threats, Senior Research Fellow Keith Rockwell predicts that Trump’s move could spark a trade war. “The United States exports hundreds of billions of dollars worth of goods to these countries,” he said. “Anyone who expects that they will stand pat and not retaliate has not been paying attention.”
Trump Tests Xi’s Appetite to Play Ball With Early Tariff Threat
Donald Trump fired an opening shot in his tariff battle with Beijing by promising an additional 10% levy on Chinese goods. The question that now confronts President Xi Jinping is how much more is coming. For Beijing, Trump's tariff threats amounts to a confirmation of a challenge looming ahead and the near certainty that China will have to contend with 60% tariffs — at least, said Head of Trade Policy Deborah Elms. “This latest salvo from Trump is just a reminder to take him seriously,” she said.
Trump trade stance pushes Asian nations toward regional alliances
Asian countries are responding to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s protectionist rhetoric by placing greater emphasis on regional and bilateral trade agreements aimed at promoting transnational economic cooperation without U.S. involvement, analysts say. Agreements such as the RCEP and the CPTPP “will help us manage some of the chaos and damage from the collapsing global system,” said Head of Trade Policy Deborah Elms in an interview with Nikkei Asia.
How South-East Asia can weather the Trump trade typhoon
During the last round of American tariffs on China, trade and investment gushed into Southeast Asia as firms developed “China plus one” strategies. But US fears over China are broadening. The hope that America's return to free trade was just one election away is now dead. Boosting regional trade in Southeast Asia through deeper ASEAN integration rarely seemed so pressing. Head of Trade Policy Deborah Elms discussed with the Economist.
WTO may seek to reappoint chief ahead of Trump presidency
The World Trade Organization is planning a special meeting of its top decision-making body later this month where a call could be made on the reappointment of its Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. If members do pursue early reappointment, it might backfire, Senior Research Fellow Keith Rockwell suggested. "Let's see how the United States likes being pushed into a corner," he said, calling the actions to speed up the appointment process "unprecedented."
How Will Trump’s Return to Power Impact China-Africa Ties?
The re-election of former U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to significantly alter American foreign policy, including its approach to Africa. As seen during Trump’s first term, U.S. engagement with the continent is likely to decrease, with a stronger emphasis on countering China’s expanding influence in the region. Senior Research Fellow Stewart Paterson sat down with China Global South Project's Eric Olander for a discussion.
Vietnam should avoid being considered as intermediary for Chinese exports to US: expert
Trump cares about trade more than almost any other subject and can be counted on to implement most of what he says, Head of Trade Policy Deborah Elms told Tuoi Tre News. The single most important metric for Trump to gauge the success of his trade policy is the size of the bilateral trade in goods deficit or surplus. This is a problem for ASEAN and Vietnam in particular where it sells a lot more to the US than it buys from the States, Elms said.