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Don’t just blame the US; India is blocking WTO reform too
As the global trade body counts down to its 13th ministerial meeting in Abu Dhabi, New Delhi has re-escalated its confrontational rhetoric as it demands concessions on agriculture. But its leverage on some issues appears to have weakened of late. "[Hostage-taking tactics] only work if the other side desperately wants something,” Keith Rockwell said.
Global institutions struggling to contain tensions
The global institutional architecture designed in the aftermath of WWII is showing its age. Trade is the most contested area of all, with frictions expected to dominate next week's WTO MC13. "Divisions run so deep that no serious negotiations will be conducted in Abu Dhabi and no outcomes will emerge," writes Research Fellow Keith Rockwell.
Peering through the gloom at the WTO meeting ahead
"It’s a couple of weeks now until the WTO ministerial meeting in the UAE... The mood among delegates is currently sober bordering on sombre bordering on sepulchral." Alan Beattie cited an analysis by Hinrich Foundation Senior Research Fellow Keith Rockwell for a "good rundown of the issues [at MC13] with an appropriately dark tinge."
Time running out for WTO dealmaking
"Trade ministers from the 164 members of the World Trade Organization will be in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, two weeks from today for what could be one of most disappointing ministerial conferences in recent memory. Former WTO spokesperson Keith Rockwell captured the mood in a piece last week for the Hinrich Foundation."
Former WTO official: MC13 poised for failure on key fronts
If World Trade Organization negotiations continue as they have, ministers are likely to leave the 13th ministerial conference without deals in many top-priority areas including fisheries subsidies, agriculture, the e-commerce moratorium and dispute settlement reform, writes Senior Research Fellow Keith Rockwell.
Spanish Galleons in Singapore Tell Powerful Trade Story
"Commonly described as being in retreat, globalization has taken many forms over the centuries....Trade and investment links are in a constant state of evolution," writes columnist Daniel Moss, inspired by the "Manila Galleon: From Asia to the Americas" exhibition at Singapore’s Asian Civilisations Museum, co-sponsored by the Hinrich Foundation.
One way China is growing more dependent on Taiwan
China is the world’s largest importer and exporter of intermediate goods, and Taiwan makes up the largest share of China’s intermediate good imports at 14% in 2022 – up from 12.2% in 2018. Quartz cites from a report authored by Oxford Economics and commissioned by the Hinrich Foundation.
China’s Economy Is in Serious Trouble
China has underperformed by just about every economic indicator since Beijing lifted its draconian "zero Covid" measures. It has been clear for a long time that China’s economic model was becoming unsustainable. As Research Fellow Stewart Paterson notes, consumer spending is very low as a percentage of GDP.
Global trade to lag behind GDP growth for first time in decades: BCG
Year-on-year growth in global goods trade is projected to be 2.8%, dropping behind an annual GDP growth rate of 3.1%, according to research from Boston Consulting Group. But a recent report published by the Hinrich Foundation and Oxford Economics suggests that supply chains for intermediate goods have continued to expand.
Christmas ends early for Chinese exporters as Western demand slumps
As big spenders in the US and Europe seek price cuts, emerging markets in Southeast Asia and domestic consumption will become more and more important for Chinese traders, says Senior Research Fellow Stephen Olson. Overall, exports are likely to become less important as a growth engine for the Chinese economy.
4 questions we must ask as values move to the centre of the trade agenda
A profound shift in global trade is underway, away from exclusively economic considerations towards a values-based approach to trade. While often well-intentioned, this also comes with significant complications beyond the obvious economic ramifications, Stephen Olson writes in this op-ed.
Biden Declares Victory Over Supply Snarls Just as New Delays, Costs Emerge
Bloomberg announced their winning of the 2023 Hinrich trade reporting award. One story explored the subtle structural shifts in global commerce. Another told of how Brazil was turning to China for foreign investment. A third dug into data showing how the world is reorganizing into rival blocs.