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What we are reading

Trade in 2025

Published 14 January 2025

Global trade analysts around the world are making their predictions for 2025, finding that the only certainty is uncertainty. Are US-China relations heading toward “unmanaged decoupling”? Is Washington's tightening tech squeeze on China backfiring, and would Trump's tariff plan make things worse? How are investment flows fragmenting along geopolitical fault lines and the walls of protectionism? See what we've been reading to find out more.

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Top risks to watch | Trade and technology tit for tat | Attracting or detering foreign direct investment? | WTO disputes and trade concerns | More research from Hinrich Foundation

Top risks to watch

  1. Eurasia Group's Top Risks for 2025 – Eurasia Group, January 6, 2025
    The Eurasia Group predicts that a "G-Zero" world, where no single power is dominant, will become reality.
  2. Asia 2025 Outlook: Asia Growth to Slow as Trump Takes Power – Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Trinh Nguyen, Natixis, December 6, 2024
    Natixis looks ahead to 2025 and finds uncertainty and underwhelming prospects for many Asian economies.
  3. China 2025: What To Watch – Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI), December 9, 2024
    ASPI experts see a high risk for "unmanaged decoupling" in US-China relations.

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Trade and technology tit for tat

  1. Understanding the Biden Administration’s Updated Export Controls – Gregory C. Allen, Center for Strategic and International Studies, December 11, 2024
    Allen details the Biden Administration’s third attempt to hinder China’s access to chip technologies.

  2. Biden Tees Up Trump With a Final China Chip Battle – Rishi Iyengar and Christina Lu, Foreign Policy, December 5, 2024
    Foreign Policy details the latest measures taken by the US and China in a battle over control of critical materials and technologies.

  3. HF sponsored accessJoe Biden to hit Chinese cleantech imports with more tariffs – Financial Times, December 11, 2024
    Per the FT, the Biden Administration is imposing new tariffs on imports of critical materials from China for green technologies.

  4. HF sponsored accessUS launches probe into Chinese semiconductor industry – Financial Times, December 24, 2024
    The FT reports on a new Section 301 investigation on China’s support for its semiconductor industry.

  5. Pentagon Labels More Chinese Companies as Military in Nature – James T. Areddy, The Wall Street Journal, January 3, 2025
    The Wall Street Journal details the Pentagon’s decision to add well-known Chinese companies to a list of entities tied to the Chinese military.

  6. China Flexes Lithium Dominance With Plans for Tech-Export Curbs – Bloomberg, January 3, 2025
    Bloomberg writes on China’s plans to restrict exports of battery-making materials and technologies.

  7. Biden to Further Limit Nvidia AI Chip Exports in Final Push – Mackenzie Hawkins and Jenny Leonard, Bloomberg, January 9, 2024
    Bloomberg reports on Biden’s final move to restrict China’s access to AI semiconductor technologies.

  8. Breaking down the world’s tariffs against China’s tech industry – Selina Cheng, Rest of World, November 27, 2024
    Rest of World highlights that Western countries are not the only ones imposing tariffs on Chinese tech.

  9. How America’s War on Chinese Tech Backfired – Scott Kennedy, Foreign Affairs, November 26, 2024
    Kennedy finds China more determined than ever to succeed in its technological achievements.

     

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Attracting or deterring foreign direct investment?

  1. Biden rejected appeals of several top advisers in blocking U.S. Steel bid – Ellen Nakashima, Jeff Stein and David J. Lynch, Washington Post, January 4, 2025
    The Washington Post reports that Biden’s top advisors disagreed over whether to block the acquisition.

  2. Nippon Steel vs. Biden on U.S. Steel deal: 5 things to know – Sayumi Take, Nikkei Asia, January 10, 2024
    Nikkei reports on the next steps for Nippon Steel and US Steel after the Biden Administration’s rejection.

  3. A new index to measure geopolitical fragmentation in global greenfield foreign direct investment – Lukas Boeckelmann, Isabella Moder, and Tajda Spital, VOX EU/CEPR, November 15, 2024
    New reporting finds geopolitics affecting FDI flows.

  4. Make It Here in the USA! What the track record of attracting FDI into the United States implies for the Next Administration – Simon J. Evenett, Global Trade Alert Zeitgeist Briefing 52, December 4, 2024
    Evenett takes a close look at greenfield FDI trends in the US over the last two administrations.

  5. HF sponsored accessEU to demand technology transfers from Chinese companies – Alice Hancock, Andy Bounds and Alec Russell, Financial Times, November 19, 2024
    The EU may adopt Chinese-style technology transfer requirements tied to inbound investments.

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WTO disputes and trade concerns

  1. Reflections from the United States on the Handling of Disputes Involving Essential Security Measures – Communication from the United States, World Trade Organization, December 11, 2024
    The Biden Administration makes a last-minute recommendation on how to manage "essential security"-related disputes.

  2. Trade Concerns Database – World Trade Organization
    The WTO has published a new database allowing greater transparency into trade concerns raised by Member economies.

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