What does “reciprocal trade” mean?

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Reciprocity... or whatever Trump says it is | In other tariff news | The world considers how to respond | Trump turns his focus toward China and foreign investment | More research from Hinrich Foundation

Reciprocity... or whatever Trump says it is

1. Reciprocal Trade and Tariffs – Memorandum, The White House, February 13, 2025
   Trump begins the process of imposing reciprocal tariffs on potentially all US trading partners.

2. HF sponsored accessWhat is Donald Trump’s ‘reciprocal’ tariff plan? – Financial Times, February 14, 2025
   The Financial Times compiles key points relating to Trump’s reciprocal tariff proposal.

3. Donald Trump Wants Reciprocity in Trade: Here’s a Closer Look – Edward Alden and Jennifer Hillman, Council on Foreign Relations, February 14, 2025
   Alden and Hillman describe the US’s historical experience with reciprocity, and why the approach was abandoned in favor of the MFN principle.

4. Most Favoured Nation Is Dead – Sam Lowe, Most Favoured Nation, February 17, 2025
   Lowe illustrates how Trump’s imposition of reciprocal tariffs could break the MFN principle globally.

5. Attracting the Ire of the Next US Administration: A Red Flag Analysis based on recent policy & market outcomes – Simon Evenett, Global Trade Alert, November 5, 2024
   Evenett estimates which trading partners will draw the most scrutiny in applying reciprocal tariffs.

6. ‘Reciprocal’ Tariffs Make No Sense – Douglas Irwin Op-Ed, The Wall Street Journal, February 13, 2025
   Irwin argues that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs amount to outsourcing US tariff policy to other countries.

7. HF sponsored accessTrump’s risible ‘reciprocal’ tariffs – Alan Beattie, Financial Times, February 17, 2025
   Beattie argues that "reciprocity" is only what Trump says it is.

For more coverage on reciprocal tariffs and trade from the Hinrich Foundation, read What we know about Trump’s reciprocal tariffs – and what we don’t by Deborah Elms and Trump’s "reciprocal" tariffs took root in the WTO's failings by Mark Linscott.

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In other tariff news

1. Defending American Companies and Innovators From Overseas Extortion and Unfair Fines and Penalties – Memorandum, The White House, February 21, 2025
   The Trump Administration considers countering digital services taxes with tariffs and other actions.

2. Trump Floats 25% Auto, Drug, Chip Tariffs, Upping Trade Threats – Hadriana Lowenkron and Josh Wingrove, Bloomberg, February 19, 2025
   Bloomberg reports on newly proposed tariffs on specific sectors.

3. Trump adds lumber to list of goods facing tariffs over 'next month or sooner' – Reuters, February 20, 2025
   Reuters reports that Trump may impose 25% tariffs on lumber and forest products, adding to a growing list of targeted products.

4. What Trump’s Aluminum and Steel Tariffs Will Mean, in Six Charts – Shannon K. O’Neil and Julia Huesa, Council on Foreign Relations, February 14, 2025
   CFR illustrates what steel and aluminum tariffs will mean for the US and its top trading partners.

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The world considers how to respond

1. America-First Tariffs May Fuel America-Alone Supply Chains – Brooke Sutherland, Bloomberg, February 14, 2025
   Per Bloomberg, companies are considering how best to respond to tariffs, and US manufacturing may not be a viable option.

2. WTO members call for restraint as Trump threatens tariffs and more – Peter Ungphakorn, Trade β Blog, February 19, 2025
   Ungphakorn recounts the debate among nations at the WTO in reaction to US trade policy.

3. What should all the other trading countries do? What happens now is largely in their hands. – Alan M. Wolff, Peterson Institute for International Economics, February 18, 2025
   Wolff posits what can be accomplished through the WTO now.

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Trump turns his focus toward China and foreign investment

1. America First Investment Policy – Memorandum, The White House, February 21, 2025
   Trump intensifies restrictions on Chinese investments in the US and US investments in China.

2. China Has Record Foreign Investment Outflow as $168 Billion Exit – Bloomberg, February 14, 2025
   Bloomberg reports on the reasons underlying China’s largest capital outflows since 1990.

More related analysis from HF:

• What we know about Trump’s reciprocal tariffs – and what we don’t

• Trump’s "reciprocal" tariffs took root in the WTO's failings

• The shock and awe hidden in Trump’s America First trade policy memo

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