Published 08 October 2024
Boxed in by electoral gaming and the policies of her current boss, Kamala Harris’ campaign has remained largely silent on global trade. In her race for the White House against Donald Trump, the sitting Vice President doesn't have much room yet to maneuver in defining her own trade policy. But if there are signals of deviation from the Biden line to be found, the likeliest might be found in her approach to Silicon Valley.
The meteoric rise of Kamala Harris from the number two on a ticket seemingly destined for defeat to narrow favorite to win in November has generated enormous global interest in how the Vice President might govern were she to become president of the United States. It became quickly evident that she is a formidable debater, a charismatic presence, and a centrist Democrat. But while Harris’ views on issues like reproductive rights and immigration are relatively well known, her ideas on trade and international economic engagement remain a cipher.
Well aware of the mystery surrounding her policy positions, Harris’s speech at the end of September to the Economic Club of Pittsburgh was designed to provide some clarity. Harris outlined an economic policy that was long on issues that would be popular with middle class voters, including a US$6,000 tax credit for parents with a newborn child and a US$25,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers. Her proposals include tax breaks for startup companies and price caps on prescription medicines.
Still, the speech had no mention of trade. Harris spoke of her desire for the US to "out-innovate and outcompete the world” and to “unlock the potential of small business so that no one will be able to keep up with us." Rather than directly bring up trade, she spoke of industrial policies in key sectors that would enable the US to be the leader in these sectors such that "America and not China wins the competition for the 21st century."
Download Silence speaks louder: What Kamala Harris leaves open on US trade and economic strategy by Keith Rockwell:
Harris’ misgivings about China and conspicuous silence on global trade are in lockstep with President Biden. But if there is deviation from the Biden line to be found, it might be found in her approach to Silicon Valley and the tech behemoths that call it home. Oakland, California, is Harris’ hometown and she has been a public presence in the Bay Area for decades. Her speech in Pittsburgh was rife with references to the need to maintain and bolster US leadership in the industries of the future. But given that protectionism is now hardwired into the US’ political psyche, Harris is likely to stick close to Biden’ policies, at least in the beginning of her new term, if elected.
In this paper, Senior Research Fellow Keith Rockwell takes stock of a potential Harris trade policy. His analysis sifts her past positions on trade agreement and tariffs, the policy implications of her Californian roots, and her choices of advisors. On the election trail, differences between Harris and former President Trump on trade policy are nuanced. US allies are under no illusion that a Harris administration will be warm and welcoming when it comes to trade. But there may be space yet for the Democratic presidential hopeful, whose bid for the White House is already groundbreaking in many ways, to shape her own policy including on trade and technology if elected.
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Author
Keith M. Rockwell
Keith M. Rockwell is a Senior Research Fellow at the Hinrich Foundation. Prior to his retirement in June 2022, Keith served as a Director at the World Trade Organization (WTO) and spokesperson for the organization for more than 25 years. He also is Global Fellow at the Wilson Center.
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