Digital Trade Project
At the Hinrich Foundation we consider open digital trade to be a growth opportunity for countries as well as an enabler of major productivity improvements for sectors beyond the digital sector. However, we identified that policymakers, businesses and other stakeholders needed more information to have a robust discussion about ways to harness the benefits and manage potential risks related to digital trade.
Together with local business community groups, we commissioned AlphaBeta to size the value of the digital trade opportunity (both for exports and the domestic economy) and to assess risks for eight economies in the Asia-Pacific – Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam.
Our objectives for this research project included:
- Sizing the value of the digital trade opportunity for exports and the domestic economy
- Measuring the opportunity cost of having a closed digital policy
- Identifying the risks of an open digital policy and ways to address them
- Recommending key policy actions for helping economies harness the benefits and manage potential risks
The Digital Trade Project methodology is available here.
Reports available for download
Philippines Digital Trade Report
Hinrich Foundation and AlphaBeta released a report on May 31, 2019, titled “The Data Revolution: How Philippines can capture the digital trade opportunity at home and abroad.”
The report measures the current contribution and potential future impacts of digital trade to the Philippine economy. The report also formulates specific policy recommendations for capturing the digital trade opportunity and for managing potential risks.
According to the report, Digital trade also enables benefits for domestic firms in the Philippines, particularly in non-digital sectors. The value of digital-trade induced benefits is currently estimated to be around is ₱160 billion (US$ 3.2 billion, which is equivalent to 1.8% of the country’s GDP) and to have the potential to grow 12-fold by 2030 to reach ₱1.9 trillion (US$37 billion) by 2030. The growth potential arises from improved penetrations rate of digital technologies, particularly for MSME’s.
Vietnam Digital Trade Report
Hinrich Foundation with Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) and AlphaBeta launched a report on March 25, 2019, titled “The Data Revolution: How Vietnam can capture the digital trade opportunity at home and abroad.”
The report assesses the current and future potential value of digital trade for the Vietnamese economy.
According to the report, the economic value of digital trade-enabled benefits to the Vietnamese economy is estimated to be worth VND 81 trillion (US$3.5 billion) but this could grow by 12-fold under the right settings by 2030.
China Digital Trade Report
The Hinrich Foundation, China Center for Globalization (CCG) and AlphaBeta released a report on March 21, 2019, titled “The Data Revolution: How China can capture the digital trade opportunity at home and abroad,” which estimates the current and potential future contribution of digital trade to the Chinese economy.
The report also recommends important policy actions for capturing the digital trade opportunity and addressing the privacy, security and other concerns related to digital trade.
The relatively low penetration rates of some digital technologies in China suggest a large potential for higher impact in the future. By 2030, in the absence of digital trade barriers at home and abroad, the impact could grow twelve-fold and reach RMB 37 trillion (US$5.5 trillion).
Malaysia Digital Trade Report
The Hinrich Foundation, Malaysia Australia Business Council, Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs (IDEAS) and AlphaBeta launched a new report, titled, “The Data Revolution: How Malaysia can capture the digital trade opportunity at home and abroad”, on March 20, 2019.
The report examines the current and potential impact of digital trade at home and quantifies the economic value of technological gains enabled by digital trade. It also recommends perceived concerns related to digital trade and how they can be addressed.
The report finds digital exports of Malaysia accounts for about 3 percent of total export value today, but this could grow by a massive 298 percent in the absence of digital trade barriers.
Indonesia Digital Trade Report
The Hinrich Foundation released the Indonesia report, titled “The Digital Komodo Dragon: How Indonesia can capture the digital trade opportunity at home and abroad,” on February 12, 2019.
The report provides a comprehensive study of the current state and potential opportunities that digital trade could create to uplift Indonesia’s economy.
The research estimates the economic value of digital trade-enabled benefits to the Indonesian economy to be worth IDR 125 trillion, representing 0.9 percent of its GDP. If digital trade is fully leveraged, it could help Indonesia’s domestic sector to grow by more than 18-fold by 2030.
Australia Digital Trade Report
The Export Council of Australia and the Hinrich Foundation released the Australia report on 10 October 2018, entitled “From Resource Boom to Digital Boom: Capturing Australia’s digital trade opportunity at home and abroad.”
The report looks at the current state and future potential of digital trade in creating benefits for Australia’s economy.
It finds that digital trade already contributes significantly to Australia’s domestic economy, but there is a A$192 billion opportunity to be reaped by 2030 – with the right policies. Given the country’s economic prominence in the region, Australia also has a strong role to play in facilitating digital trade abroad.