UNCTAD Global Trade Update

How to find the key insights

Global trade trends and nowcast

1. Trade growth (values and volumes) was positive but low in Q1 2023 with trade in goods and services rebounding from the second half (2H) of 2022, and notable export growth in China and India; trade interdependence between China and the US has decreased. (pp. 1-3)
2. Growth in services trade outperformed goods trade; trade in information and communications technology (ICT) products declined. (p. 1-2)

3. Trade growth is likely to weaken in Q2 2023 with an unfavorable outlook for 2H 2023. (pp. 1-3)

Summary and outlook

1. Positive factors affecting trade include 1) increasing demand for services; 2) trade supporting the green transition; and 3) low shipping costs. (p. 3)
2. Negative factors affecting trade include 1) geopolitics; 2) weakening global economy; 3) potential rise in trade restrictions; 4) slowing industrial output; 5) inflation, commodity prices and interest rates; and 6) concerns over debt sustainability. (p. 3)

Trade trends in the major economies

1. Annually, growth in goods trade has been mixed among major economies, with Brazil, India, the US and the EU seeing significant increases but other major economies seeing mixed or negative growth; trade trends in Q1 2023 have been more subdued and even negative. (p. 4)
2. Trade in services during 2022 was higher, though quarterly growth rates from Q4 2022 indicate that positive trends are turning negative. (p. 4)

Regional trade trends in Q1 2023

1. Annual global trade growth has been positive across all regions except Russia and Central Asia, though East Asian trade is significantly below average; Q1 2023 saw a decline or only marginal growth in trade across all regions; Q1 2023 intraregional trade growth in Africa showed a three percent increase, more than other regions. (p. 5)

Global trade dynamics and trade dependence

1. During 2022 and Q1 2023, geographical proximity of trade flows remained stable, while political proximity of trade has increased, indicating lack of nearshoring but an increase in friendshoring, with heightened concentration of major trade relationships. (p. 6)
2. Brexit, US-China decoupling, and the Ukraine war have significantly shaped trade trends. (p. 6)

Global trade trends at the sectoral level in Q1 2023

1. In 2022, rising energy prices drove higher trade values, with agri-food, apparel, chemicals, and road vehicles increasing and ICT and transportation seeing declines; Q1 2023 saw a decline in the energy sector and a continued downturn for ICT equipment but increases in metals, chemicals, minerals, pharmaceuticals, and motor vehicles trade on a quarterly basis. (p. 7)

Complementary reports and analysis

Hinrich Foundation

• Four takeaways from the Global Trade Update 2022
• Trade and Investment in Southeast Asia

External Resources

• World Economic Outlook: A Rocky Recovery – International Monetary Fund
  The IMF alerts the world to the downsides of friend-shoring and increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Challenges to international trade and the global economy – OECD
  An assessment of the impact of the war in Ukraine and the Covid pandemic on international trade and supply chains.
• Asian Economic Integration Report 2023: Trade, Investment, and Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific – Asian Development Bank
  An outline of the economic and environmental challenges Asia currently faces.

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