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Good news but a few headwinds for global trade

Published 09 April 2024

UNCTAD forecasts international trade to rebound in 2024, while the US faces port disruption from a bridge collapse and Taiwan grapples with the aftermath of an earthquake. Meanwhile, China's EV trade divides global auto markets and US-China tensions escalate over EV subsidies. Check out our latest reading list.

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UNCTAD forecasts a better year ahead for trade flows, while disasters raise concerns | Electric vehicle trade is evolving | Controlling chip trade | Cross-border data flows | Digitalizing trade | More research from Hinrich Foundation

UNCTAD forecasts a better year ahead for trade flows, while disasters raise concerns

While UNCTAD reports that international trade will rebound in 2024 after a contraction in 2023, the US deals with the fallout from a bridge collapse blocking Baltimore’s port and Taiwan cleans up after a major earthquake. Bloomberg says that the bridge collapse will redirect cargo across the US, and the Wall Street Journal sizes up the economic impact.  TSMC facilities resumed production overnight after the earthquake, reports Bloomberg.  

Mentioned publications

  1. UNCTAD’s Global Trade Update Shows Encouraging Signs Amidst Persistent Challenges – UNCTAD, March 21, 2024
    International trade in 2024 is expected to rebound from 2023’s contraction. 

  2. Baltimore Bridge Collapse Will Redirect Cargo Across the US – Bloomberg, March 26, 2024
    How will the Baltimore Key bridge collapse reroute trade to and from the US?  

  3. Sizing Up the Economic Impact of the Baltimore Bridge Collapse – The Wall Street Journal, March 26, 2024
    How will the Key Bridge collapse in Baltimore affect global trade?  

  4. TSMC Facilities to Resume Production Overnight After Quake – Bloomberg, April 3, 2024
    Despite the largest earthquake to hit Taiwan in 25 years, chip production facilities resumed production within a day. 

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Electric vehicle trade is evolving

China’s EV trade is splitting the global auto market, writes the Wall Street Journal.  The Wire China reports on Chinese automakers’ role in global shipping. Katrina Hamlin in Reuters ponders whether Chinese automakers will follow in the footsteps of their Japanese predecessors.  The Rhodium Group examines China’s global investment boom in the EV supply chain. Meanwhile, China brings a WTO dispute against the US for its EV subsidies, per Reuters.

Mentioned publications

  1. China’s Role in EVs Is Splitting the Global Auto Market in Two – Yuko Kubota, The Wall Street Journal, March 28, 2024
    The world’s markets are split between those accepting Chinese EVs and those rejecting them. 

  2. Automakers at Sea – The Wire China, February 11, 2024
    What does the entry of Chinese automakers into the shipbuilding industry mean for global shipping and global trade?  

  3. China’s automakers try turning Japanese – Katrina Hamlin, Reuters, March 20, 2024
    Will Chinese automakers follow in Japan’s footsteps in responding to tariffs and protectionism?  

  4. Pole Position: Chinese EV Investments Boom Amid Growing Political Backlash – Gregor Sebastian, Reva Goujon and Armand Meyer, Rhodium Group, February 29, 2024
    China’s outbound investments along the EV value chain have set records in recent years. 

  5. China opens WTO dispute against US subsidies to protect its EV industry – Reuters, March 27, 2024
    Will a new dispute result in increased tariffs?  

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Controlling chip trade

The US may release a list of Chinese factories that are not permitted to buy US technologies, reports Reuters, while Nikkei Asia writes that the US and Japan will agree on subsidy rules directed at semiconductor and battery development.

Mentioned publications

  1. US may soon unveil list of Chinese chip factories barred from receiving tech – Reuters, March 29, 2024
    The US attempts to make export controls on semiconductor technologies more user-friendly. 

  2. U.S., Japan to agree on subsidy rules on chips, batteries with China in mind – Nikkei Asia, April 2, 2024
    The US and Japan will discuss new subsidy rules for strategic goods, including standards for incentives they adopt. 

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Cross-border data flows

China is easing new rules governing cross-border data flows, reports Bloomberg.

Mentioned publications

  1. China Loosens Cross-Border Data Rules on Business Pressure – Bloomberg, March 23, 2024
    China has relaxed rules on cross-border data flows after concerns were raised over previous regulations. 

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Digitalizing trade

What countries are most advanced in digitalizing trade? A new edition of the Global Trade Modernization Index from the Asia Global Institute ranks Singapore as number one.

Mentioned publications

  1. The Global Trade Modernization Index – Asia Global Institute, March 2024
    An updated index to measure economies’ readiness for digital trade. 

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