Published 20 August 2024
The outcomes of a swathe of elections in Europe for now pose little risk to significant changes in Europe’s trade and business policies. But gains made by extreme right parties will have implications that run deep into policymaking on the flows of people and talent, on which the very foundation of the European single market is built.
Set beside the failure of the far right to form a government in France and the success of centrist parties in retaining control of the European Union (EU) lies one unassailable fact: extreme right parties greatly improved their positions in France, Europe, and even Britain.
They may be poised to do better still the next time around.
For now, these results herald little change in Europe’s trade and investment policies or its relationship with business. But that may be fleeting.
What links these far-right parties is their roots in profound xenophobia. They align closely on issues that drive trade in people and talent, an essential component of sustainable global integration. The implications reach deep into policymaking on immigration, Russia, and potentially eventually the very bedrock of the European experiment that was designed to bind together by a single market and multilateral cooperation a continent whose violent history in centuries past too many times brought Europe to ruin and grief.
Download Europe’s rightward drift opens a riptide for trade by Keith Rockwell:
Not all of these parties are today considered antitrade. A European politician’s position on trade is more likely for now to be influenced by where they are from. A German or Dutch politician is more likely to be trade-friendly than one from France or Spain, sprawling nations rich with resources and relatively comfortable with the notion of self-sufficiency.
To appear more mainstream, some rightwing parties are also softening their rhetoric and staking out pro-business positions. Extreme right parties in Germany and Italy, for instance, have adopted business-friendly policies scaling back the antitrade virulence that was their calling card a decade ago. This is also the case for the right wing in France.
But the harbingers won’t go away.
Download this paper by Senior Research Fellow Keith Rockwell on the potential effects of the rise of the extreme right in Europe on the bloc's trade and investment policies, and how it could spur the bloc’s fragmentation.
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Author
Keith M. Rockwell
Keith M. Rockwell is a Senior Research Fellow at the Hinrich Foundation. Prior to his retirement in June 2022, Keith served as a Director at the World Trade Organization (WTO) and spokesperson for the organization for more than 25 years. He also is Global Fellow at the Wilson Center.
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